Saturday, January 31, 2009

New Market Trend????

Weekly Market Report
By Joe Brown, President Coldwell Banker

Is It Too Early to Call It a Trend?

Earlier this week, the National Association of Realtors reported that in December, existing home sales rose unexpectedly while inventory declined, led by a surge of sales in the West.

The national real estate organization reported, “Existing home sales – including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – jumped 6.5 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.74 million units in December from a downwardly revised pace of 4.45 million units in November, but are 3.5 percent below the 4.91 million unit pace in December 2007.”

In the West, existing home sales jumped 13.6 percent to an annual rate of 1.25 million in December and are 31.6 percent higher than a year ago. However, the median price was $213,100, down 31.5 percent from December 2007.

Here at home, the news only gets better. CAR reported this week that home sales increased 84.9 percent in December in California compared with the same period a year ago. No, that’s not a typo. 84.9 percent. On the flip side, the median price of an existing home fell 41.5 percent, a continued symbol of buyers taking advantage of the large number of distressed properties currently available.

So why the sudden, so drastic surge in sales? There are a few reasons:

· A lot of people who were previously priced out of the housing market can finally buy
· With interest rates under 5%, a buyer’s purchasing power is at its best in more than three decades
· After months of increasing or stable inventory, we are finally starting to see the numbers fall
· Increased consumer confidence (of late) based on the new administration
· We’re seeing a lot more investors coming into the market in addition to first time buyers. Consider the fact that this week alone, one Gilroy Agent represented 10 properties that went into contract. Almost all were investors and the properties were condos in the under $100,000 price range.

So is it too early to call it a trend? Probably. In all honestly, we still have a lot of distressed properties to move through before we can begin to see prices stabilize. At least for the foreseeable future, buyers will probably have the edge but with an 84.9 percent increase in sales year over year and inventories on the decline, we’re finally moving in the right direction. The key to all of this: buyers are ready to buy when they perceive a good value. Until then, they wait.

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